Ignoring Myanmar grievances a recipe for more unrest

Thu Dec 6, 2007 12:27pm IST
By Darren Schuettler

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Myanmar's ruling generals may face another "explosive" situation if they ignore the deepening domestic economic crisis which triggered mass protests against the regime this year, an expelled U.N. official said.

Charles Petrie, the top U.N. resident diplomat kicked out for highlighting the former Burma's economic woes, said the regime's refusal to acknowledge the grievances that fuelled the protests was a "pretty bad cocktail" that could lead to further unrest.

"There is this growing impoverishment and growing inability of people to meet their daily needs, which has the potential to be explosive," he told Reuters after leaving Yangon this week.

"The more people are impoverished, the less educated they are, the more they have to confront diseases that push them more into poverty, the more difficult the situation is to govern".

"If you take all these elements together, you don't necessarily have a train on a train track," said the 48-year-old Paris-born son of a British diplomat.

Petrie, whose five-year posting was due to end in next July, was told in November that his statement on U.N. Day the previous month had damaged Myanmar's image and he was no longer welcome.

The statement said the protests that began in mid-August against shock increases in fuel prices and snowballed into a monk-led uprising against the junta were indicators of the dire state of the economy after 45 years of military rule.

"That is something I think is very dangerous for the regime not to understand," said Petrie, fearing that the generals could use violence again to clamp down on public anger.

"Some would argue that my expulsion was part of that intimidation, basically making the point that if others champion your cause, we can also take care of them," he said. At least 15 people were killed in the junta's crackdown against the biggest anti-junta protests in nearly 20 years, drawing unprecedented international criticism and pressure to embark upon meaningful reforms.

However, the generals have made clear they do not intend to do anything outside the framework of their seven-step democracy roadmap, which the West dismisses as a sham to solidify the army's grip on power.

Critics say the regime's decision to restrict the drafting of a new constitution to a government-appointed panel was a clear snub of the U.N.'s effort to promote national reconciliation by including opposition and ethnic groups.

Myanmar Information Minister Kyaw Hsan told reporters in the new capital Naypyidaw on Monday that "no assistance or advice" from others was needed.

Petrie said the mission of U.N. Special Envoy to Myanmar Ibrahim Gambari, who visited twice after the protests and is expected to return this month, "is becoming more complicated" but he did not see a loss of momentum.

"I think it's important that we continue banging at the same door, continue making the same points, continue attempting to engage, because there may be an aligning of different things that will allow for a breakthrough," he said.