Burma monks take on junta in street protests

AFP
September 23, 2007 12:00am

EMBOLDENED after a march to see Burma's detained democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi, Buddhist monks have vowed fresh protests in the biggest challenge to the junta's rule in nearly two decades.
Analysts in Thailand say this was a landmark moment for the protest movement, but suspect the military's low-key reaction aims to take the steam out of the marches.

In an unprecedented move, the army yesterday allowed about 2000 young monks and civilians to pass a roadblock and gather by the lakeside Rangoon house which has been Aung San Suu Kyi's prison for 12 of the past 18 years.

Tears in her eyes, the woman known in Burma as "The Lady" waved at monks as they recited Buddhist prayers, witnesses said, while supporters chanted: "Long life and health for Aung San Suu Kyi, may she have freedom soon".

The 62-year-old has become an internationally recognised symbol of non-violent political change since her National League for Democracy won 1990 elections by a landslide.

The military never recognised the result and tried to silence Aung San Suu Kyi by keeping her under house arrest.

One underground Buddhist group calling itself the All Burma Monks Alliance called for nationwide prayer vigils starting today - the latest peaceful action against the military rulers since an August 15 rise in fuel prices.

The group said clergy would lead a "people's alliance" that would "struggle peacefully against the evil military dictatorship till its complete downfall".

What began as a protest against economic hardship has now swelled, with marches against military rule attracting thousands of monks to the streets of Rangoon and other cities including Mandalay since Tuesday.

The military - which has ruled Burma in some form since 1962 - now faces a quandary, analysts say.

Launching a violent and public crackdown on deeply-revered monks would outrage people in Burma and the international community, but doing nothing at all leaves the military regime vulnerable.

"If they crack down seriously on the monks it means it would also seriously inflame the rest of the population, including members of the military themselves for attacking the sacred and very prestigious institution," said Debbie Stothard, of Thailand-based democracy pressure group Altsean Burma.

"So the military regime is really in a lose-lose situation."

The junta normally does not tolerate the slightest show of public dissent, and authorities during the past month have arrested more than 150 people.

"The junta is well aware that if it cracks down on demonstrations, it will give the United States ammunition to attack Burma at the UN Security Council," said Aung Naing Oo, a Thailand-based Burma analyst.

"The military does not want to see this scenario."

Win Min, a Burmese academic who lectures at Chiang Mai university in Thailand, said that allowing monks to visit Aung San Suu Kyi was a sign that the junta sought a non-violent conclusion to the protests.

"It's clear that the junta is under pressure from China to solve the situation peacefully," he told AFP.
While pleas for democratic reform and the imposition of sanctions by the United States and Europe appear to have little effect on the junta, key allies China and India, which buy Burma's natural gas and other resources, have more clout.

China has previously insisted it would not pressure the junta, but in a rare move this month, Beijing's top diplomatic adviser Tang Jiaxuan gently nudged the junta to adopt democratic changes.

"China sees Burma's junta is the only institution providing stability in the country," said Aung Naing Oo.

"If the junta cracks down on monks, it would break that stability, and China does not want to see that happen."

India has not taken similar steps, and its oil minister today headed to Burma to sign contracts for oil and gas exploration.

Whether the junta's moves yesterday will diffuse tensions or further galvanise monks remains to be seen, with further marches planned today.

But Win Min said that people were unlikely to see a miraculous turnaround in junta policy and Aung San Suu Kyi would likely remain prisoner at her Rangoon home.

"The junta does not want to free her yet, as it sees her a serious threat to its rule," said Win Min.

- AFP