Saffron revolution

The Australian
Sian Powell
September 27, 2007

THE tyrants of Burma have lashed out at the protesters, but the time for democracy finally may have arrived, writes Sian Powell.

IT didn't take long for the Burmese junta to show its teeth. Eight days of protests had passed without reprisals; mass marches of 100,000 people led by barefoot monks in saffron robes, chanting Buddhist mantras.

But on the ninth day the Burmese military finally pounced, firing shots in the air, using batons and tear gas to subdue dissidents, and arresting an estimated 100 democracy aspirants.

A sense of the tension can be heard in one young Burmese journalist's voice. She is excited by the prospect of change and terrified of the Burmese authorities. She knows exactly how oppressive the anachronistic and strangely named State Peace and Development Council has been.

Her homeland has quietly endured decades of misery, torture, abuse and the long incarceration of the beloved National League of Democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

"We have to wait and see," the journalist says, preferring to keep her identity a secret to avoid reprisals.

The mood in Rangoon oscillates between hope and fear. "So far, we have to be pleased about it," she says. "The monks, they are very brave. They are chanting mantras, Buddhist teachings, they are not talking about political matters." She will not be writing the truth about the protests, she says. "Anything written, it will be rejected."

Following in the footsteps of the rain-sodden monks who have taken to the streets of Rangoon in their thousands, several international figures have pushed for change in Burma.

US President George W. Bush condemned the tyrannical Burmese junta during his visit to Sydney for the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation forum leaders summit, and this week he announced sanctions against junta leaders and their financiers.

UN special envoy Ibrahim Gambari last week briefed the Security Council on his "serious concerns" regarding Burma, and he plans to visit the country soon, perhaps next month. Closer to home, Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer says the eyes of the world are on Burma and urges the regime to "exercise maximum restraint".

A democracy activist in Rangoon says protesters want to encourage political change and avoid bloodshed.

"Definitely there are a lot of people who are very moved and who are very emotional," she says. Still, she adds, the people of Burma are worried about the consequences of the uprising, consequences that could easily involve mass arrests, assault and slaughter.

"But this is a time which is very critical, and they will understand that this is the case and they will need to do something."

Resting its back against the might of China to the north, the SPDC regime has long ignored the polemic from notables such as one-time Czech president Vaclav Havel, South African archbishop and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Desmond Tutu, and more recently US first lady Laura Bush.

For years Russia and China have staunchly resisted any efforts to discuss Burma in the Security Council. Now, though, it appears China -- mindful of its international image and sensitive to criticism as the 2008 Beijing Olympics loom nearer -- has advised the Burma regime to refrain from the brutal oppression at which it has become so adept.

Refusing to accept alms from anyone in the military and thereby imperilling soldiers' important religious observances, the rebel monks set the scene for a showdown. There are more than 400,000 monks in Burma, and only a small percentage have marched through the streets, but many senior abbots have so far declined to block their efforts.

Yesterday, the regime declared a dusk-to-dawn curfew in Rangoon and Mandalay, and used truck-mounted loudspeakers to warn that meetings of more than five people were illegal. Burma's Religious Affairs Minister, Brigadier-General Thura Myint Maung, has publicly accused the monks of being manipulated by the Government's domestic and foreign enemies, and warned that if senior abbots failed to restrain their disciples, the Government would act.

Burma has groaned under a military dictatorship since 1962 and the last big uprising, in 1988, was swiftly and brutally crushed, leaving as many as 3000 people dead.

Aung Zaw, editor of The Irrawaddy news magazine based in northern Thailand's Chiang Mai, was a student dissident in the famous 1988 protests. He was imprisoned in Rangoon's notorious Insein jail and tortured. He finally fled to Thailand.

"The monks have been on the streets again; I think it's the moment of truth," Zaw says. The sheer size of the protests amazes him; the crowds of monks, nuns and civilians willing to brave the worst the junta can bowl up, from indiscriminate killings to long terms in prison.

Monks are revered in Burma. They command immense moral authority. They initially limited themselves to prayer and chanting, and advised civilians to stay away from the marches.

On the weekend, though, the hitherto unknown All Burma Monks Alliance stepped into the spotlight and urged people to struggle peacefully against the military dictatorship. The army provoked the monks' ire earlier this month when soldiers fired over the heads of a group of monks demonstrating in the central town of Pakokku where, according to some reports, monks were beaten and arrested. There have also been reports of the military firing warning shots and tear gas at a monks' protest in the town of Sittwe, and for two days monks were barred from the golden Shwedagon Pagoda in Rangoon, Burma's holiest temple.

Zaw fears the regime will resort to yet more violence to contain the uprising: "We've been receiving warnings, how to take care of shooting victims in case this happens." He doesn't believe the junta leaders will step aside and he doesn't think the people of Burma expect regime change. "I don't think people are stupid," he says. "Burmese people are very guarded; they have lived with this junta for many years."

The best hope for many is a gradual relaxation of the regime's stranglehold on the people and some negotiation with the democracy leaders.

The junta's much-touted National Constitutional Convention, the first of the military's "seven steps to democracy", finally ended last month, after 14 years of delay and obfuscation. Suu Kyi's NLD boycotted the convention, which has been roundly declared a fraud.

Rather than the promised decentralised authority and respect for minority rights, the constitutional road map cements the military's role in government and the economy. As the junta's leaders sit in their palaces in Naypyidaw, the bizarre new capital carved out of the jungle last year, Rangoon seethes.

For decades the dilapidated city, set on a curve of the Irrawaddy river, has endured the quixotic edicts of the junta leaders, few with any regard for the health and happiness of the Burmese people. The nation is mired in poverty and suffering, enduring a silent crisis of widespread squalor, inadequate health care and the misery of thousands of refugees camped on the borders.

The 500,000 members of the Karen, Karenni and Mon tribes of eastern Burma -- subject to forced evictions, forced labour and the destruction of crops -- have some of the worst health conditions in the world.

Myint Cho, from the Australia Burma Council, says the uprising of recent days is the first national protest since the doomed marches of 1988.

Initially sparked by a sharp increase in fuel prices last month, the protests have grown into a nationwide movement for change, pushing the regime to take the first steps towards dealing with the poverty and resulting anger that has marked the nation.

"I believe if they face domestic and international pressure, they have no alternative," Cho says.

"The UN is too little, too late. We need to convince China and India to convince the military Government to begin negotiations." He says that while ASEAN has maintained a policy of non-interference for many years, more recently the leaders of Malaysia, Indonesia and The Philippines have made it clear the junta must begin to change.

The living symbol of Burma's democracy movement is Suu Kyi, the adored Nobel Peace Prize laureate who has spent 11 of the past 17 years imprisoned in her home in University Avenue, Rangoon. She has been more or less completely isolated since May 2003, when she was rearrested after government militias attacked her convoy in Depayin, upper Burma, and beat to death more than 100 of her supporters.

So her appearance at her gate on the weekend astounded the waiting monks and activists. She didn't say anything but, according to some reports, had tears in her eyes.

"She was at the gate, I think she could (make a speech) but she won't, she is very restrained, she does not want to ignite the situation," Zaw says.

"If she would give a one-minute speech, or a two-minute speech ..." Zaw doesn't finish his sentence, but the meaning is clear. Now there have been reports Suu Kyi has been moved to Insein prison; certainly she hasn't been seen since that weekend appearance.

Some Burma observers wonder whether Suu Kyi's adamant adherence to pacifism has been a mistake, whether it would have been better in the long run to permit an armed surge to seize government after the election-losing junta refused to hand over power in 1990. The NLD had won the election by a landslide and the nation was ripe for change. Since then, thousands of her followers in the NLD have been slaughtered, imprisoned or harried into exile.

Yet perhaps the time is finally right. The junta leader, Senior General Than Shwe, is 74 and in poor health. Despite a gas pipeline deal with China that pulls in billions of dollars, Burma is in financial straits and the regime's excesses and fiscal mismanagement have forced it to make drastic cuts in expensive fuel and energy subsidies.

The young journalist and democracy activist says the Burmese people know the immense risks of pushing the junta.

"But the situation has become unbearable for a lot of the people," she says, adding the only real option is to press on.

"I hope for much better change; that's what we all hope."

Sian Powell is a former Indonesia correspondent for The Australian.

Timeline

* August 8, 1988: Burmese military opens fire on demonstrators in what is known as the 8888 Uprising. More than 3000 people are killed.

* 1990: Elections held. The results are annulled. The National League for Democracy, led by Aung San Suu Kyi, wins more than 60 per cent of the vote and more than 80 per cent of seats. The military-backed National Unity Party wins fewer than 2 per cent of seats.

* 1991: Aung San Suu Kyi wins the Nobel Peace Prize. She spends most of the following years under house arrest.

* 1992: Military leader Than Shwe, a former psychological warfare expert, takes power. He is believed to make decisions guided by astrology.

* November 7, 2006: Shwe gives civil servants a few hours to move from Rangoon to the country's new capital, Naypyidaw. The junta rules in total secrecy and near isolation in a hidden compound there. The only glimpse of the ruling elite's lives comes from a video of Shwe's daughter's wedding showing guests drinking champagne and a bride bedecked in jewellery.